Stock Market Indicators
Market Commentary Archive
02/26/2012 Crystal Ball Gazing
02/24/2012 Oil Not a Concern Yet
02/19/2012 Timing the US Housing Recovery
02/16/2012 Business Fixed Investments Ramping Up
02/12/2012 A US Manufacturing Renaissance
02/10/2012 Sentiment Creeping Higher
02/05/2012 Breakout! But Overbought...
02/02/2012 The Market and Life's Twist and Turns
01/31/2012 A Final DJIA Timing System Update
01/27/2012 US Stock Market Rally Sustainable
01/22/2012 US Labor Market Update
01/20/2012 More Easing to Come
01/15/2012 2012 Outlook on Base Metals
01/12/2012 Emerging Markets Risks
01/08/2012 2012 Outlook on Oil and Natural Gas Prices
01/05/2012 U.S. Still the Center of Power
12/29/2011 All Quiet - For Now
12/27/2011 The Greek Euro Exit Spread and Breakout!
12/23/2011 Saying Goodbye
12/18/2011 Natural Gas and 3Q 2011 Household Debt Payments
12/15/2011 The 38th Semi-Annual Conference on Supercomputing
12/11/2011 Greece and 2011 3Q Flow of Funds Update Housing Still Needs Attention
12/08/2011 UK, Japanese, and US$ Liquidity
12/04/2011 Merkel Dragging Her Feet: Trading Range into Next Year?
12/01/2011 Central Bank Bilateral Swaps Necessary But Not Sufficient
11/24/2011 The 21st Century Jeffersonian Yeoman Farmer
11/20/2011 Tracking the Biggest Money Loser: Japan
11/17/2011 A Binary Event
11/13/2011 Italy Still a Concern
11/06/2011 U.S. Stock Market Deleveraging Likely Done
11/04/2011 Bullish on the U.S. Dollar
10/30/2011 State of U.S. Housing
10/27/2011 Natural Gas Still Treading Water
10/23/2011 Eyes Still on Europe
10/20/2011 Watching U.S. Banks
10/16/2011 Japan Government Bonds Unattractive but no Imminent Decline
10/14/2011 An Update on Oil
10/09/2011 Sentiment Indicators at Historically Oversold Levels
10/07/2011 The Risk to Oil Prices
10/02/2011 Sentiment Indicators Now Highly Oversold
09/29/2011 U.S. Bank Credit and 2Q 2011 Household Debt Payments
09/22/2011 2011 2Q Flow of Funds Update - Feds Need to Pay Attention to Housing
09/18/2011 The Ongoing European Sovereign Debt Crisis
09/15/2011 U.S. Liquidity Picture Needs Improvement
09/06/2011 Hope: The Four-Letter Word
09/02/2011 U.S. Liquidity Picture Still Mixed
08/28/2011 Casual Dining Needs a Reinvention
08/21/2011 As Good as Gold?
08/17/2011 Liquidity Slightly Improving
08/14/2011 Our Base Scenario: No QE3 and Revising U.S. GDP Growth
08/11/2011 Targeting an Initial 50% Long Position
08/09/2011 Ad Hoc Commentary: Looking for a Bottom
08/07/2011 The ECB Needs to Ease
08/04/2011 Summer Doldrums
07/31/2011 Investor Sentiment Stubbornly Optimistic
07/28/2011 The Leadership Void
07/21/2011 Foreign Central Bank Reserves Held at the Fed and France
07/17/2011 Evaluating Italy
07/14/2011 Not Holding My Breath for QE3
07/10/2011 Where is Global Inflation Heading
07/07/2011 Wrapping up QE2
07/05/2011 Breaking the Supercomputing Barrier
06/28/2011 Is "Low-End" Retailing Making a Comeback?
06/24/2011 Markets Not Oversold Enough
06/19/2011 U.S. Bank Credit and Household Debt Payments Update
06/16/2011 Greece and Fed Balance Sheet Updates
06/14/2011 2011 1Q Flow of Funds Update - Housing Weakness No Surprise
06/03/2011 Market Liquidity and Leverage Updates
05/29/2011 Revising 2011 US GDP Growth Yet Again
05/22/2011 Marginal Growth in Global Crude Oil Production
05/19/2011 Market Technical Updates
05/15/2011 The Need for Fiscal Restraint - Part II
05/12/2011 Market Liquidity Updates
05/08/2011 The Divergence between ECB and the Fed Policies
05/01/2011 The BRIC's Monetary Policies
04/28/2011 Fed and Technical Updates
04/22/2011 Valuation, Liquidity and Leverage Updates
04/17/2011 US GDP Growth Revision
04/15/2011 Bank Lending and Fed Balance Updates
04/10/2011 Earnings Season Heats Up
04/03/2011 The Need for Fiscal Restraint
04/01/2011 Bank Lending and Market Liquidity Updates
03/27/2011 Where is Crude Oil Going?
03/25/2011 Update of the Shadow Banking System
03/20/2011 Japan and U.S. Household Debt Payments Update
03/13/2011 2010 4Q Flow of Funds Update – More Deleveraging Needed
03/11/2011 Bank Lending and Liquidity Update
03/06/2011 Central Bank Tightening
02/27/2011 When Will the Fed End its Quantitative Easing Policy?
02/25/2011 Is the Shadow Banking System Recovering?
02/22/2011 Could Inflation Dangers be the Trigger?
02/18/2011 Japan, Fed Balance Sheet, and Liquidity Update
02/13/2011 Japan – An Enigma
02/06/2011 Quick Sentiment and Liquidity Comments
02/04/2011 Fed Balance Sheet Update
01/30/2011 Correction in Play
01/28/2011 Liquidity Indicators Still Challenging
01/23/2011 Commercial Real Estate Still Deleveraging
01/18/2011 Quick Comments on Valuation and Liquidity
01/14/2011 Technicals Still Deteriorating
01/09/2011 Our Dark Sides
01/02/2011 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2010 - Part II
12/31/2010 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2011 - Part I
12/23/2010 More on Household Deleveraging
12/19/2010 DJIA Timing System Now Completely Neutral
12/12/2010 2010 3Q Flow of Funds Update - Deleveraging Process Ongoing
12/09/2010 Copper Prices Blowing Off?
12/05/2010 Spain Not Out of the Woods
11/25/2010 A Time to Give Thanks
11/21/2010 Natural Gas Technically Bullish
11/14/2010 Still Not Supportive for a Rally
11/11/2010 Market Ripe for a Correction
11/05/2010 A Note on the ECB, U.S. Liquidity, and Sentiment
10/31/2010 A Note on Demographics and the Yen
10/29/2010 Still Watching Liquidity
10/24/2010 The Big Question of QE2
10/21/2010 A Random Assortment of Technical, Liquidity, and Valuation Indicators
10/17/2010 Waiting for QE2
10/14/2010 Natural Gas Still Not a Buy
10/10/2010 Negative Divergences Still in Play
10/03/2010 Short-Term Negative Divergences Developing
10/01/2010 Mutual Fund Cash Levels and Household Deleveraging
09/26/2010 Know Thyself
09/19/2010 The Implications of Quantum Computing and 2010 2Q Flow of Funds Update
09/16/2010 Ad Hoc Comments on the Yen
09/12/2010 A Shakeout in the Hedge Fund Industry?
09/05/2010 Why the Yen Could Rise Further
09/02/2010 Still Sitting and Waiting
08/29/2010 What are Base Metals' Prices Saying?
08/22/2010 Liquidity and Sentiment Indicators Still not Cooperating
08/19/2010 Determinism vs. Free Will and its Ultimate Impact on Your Investments
08/15/2010 A New Sentiment Indicator
08/10/2010 Looking for a Further Fed Easing
08/05/2010 What's With the Yen?
08/01/2010 A Quick Update
07/25/2010 Technical Conditions Vastly Improving
07/23/2010 Previewing the European Union Bank Stress Tests
07/18/2010 All Eyes on the European Union's Banks Stress Tests
07/15/2010 The Next Yen Carry Trade?
07/11/2010 Early Second Half Liquidity Indicators
07/04/2010 Waiting for the European Union's Stress Tests
07/01/2010 Market Short-Term Oversold, But...
06/28/2010 Still in No-Man’s Land
06/20/2010 Credit Conditions Easing?
06/13/2010 2010 1Q Flow of Funds Update – Households Still Deleveraging
06/08/2010 U.S. Dollar Index Getting Overbought
06/03/2010 Is the Third Time a Charm?
05/30/2010 Watching Portugal
05/23/2010 Looking for a Rebound Rally
05/20/2010 Ad Hoc Commentary: A Bounce from Here?
05/16/2010 When Will We Buy?
05/14/2010 Is the Behavior of the Market Changing?
05/09/2010 How Potent is the €720 billion Bailout Package?
05/02/2010 We Haven't Heard the Last of Greece
04/29/2010 A Fundamental Restructuring is Needed
04/25/2010 The Risk of Contagion is Overblown
04/18/2010 A Bearish Shooting Star
04/15/2010 March Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index Update
04/11/2010 Negative Divergences in the Health Care Sector
04/04/2010 Negative Divergences Abound
04/01/2010 Cash on the Sidelines Update
03/28/2010 Building a Better Mousetrap
03/25/2010 Is a Stock Market Correction Imminent?
03/21/2010 A Note on the Iranian Energy Infrastructure
03/14/2010 2009 4Q Flow of Funds Update
03/12/2010 The Status of the Equity Bull Market
03/07/2010 David Korn's Perspectives
02/28/2010 An Update on the REIT Market
02/26/2010 The Fed's Balance Sheet Update
02/21/2010 The Next Country to Tighten
02/19/2010 A MarketThoughts Opportunistic Investor Portfolio and a Liquidate Update
02/15/2010 The Patent Index
02/08/2010 A Short-Term Bottom in the Stock Market?
02/04/2010 A Quick Liquidity Update
01/31/2010 What Is Not Sustainable Cannot be Sustained
01/24/2010 Global Equity Markets in Corrective Phase
01/21/2010 The Shifting Political and Policy Wind
01/17/2010 Keeping Track of China
01/10/2010 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2010 - Part II
01/03/2010 A U.S. Liquidity Update
12/30/2009 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2010 - Part I
12/20/2009 What’s Next for the US Economy?
12/17/2009 Mid-Week Ad Hoc Commentary
12/13/2009 The Deleveraging of US Households 2009 3Q Flow of Funds Update
12/10/2009 A Word on Natural Gas
12/06/2009 The Cyclical Bull Trend is Not Over
11/26/2009 Thanksgiving Greetings
11/22/2009 Do or Die Time for Las Vegas Casino Operators?
11/15/2009 Bearish on Retail
11/13/2009 A Less Liquid Market
11/08/2009 What's Ailing Japan?
11/01/2009 To Monetize or Not to Monetize?
10/18/2009 The Opportunistic Investor Portfolio
10/16/2009 Neutral on the U.S. Dollar Index
10/11/2009 What Are Valuations Telling Us?
10/08/2009 Still Bullish on the U.S. Dollar Index
10/04/2009 Is the European Banking System Out of the Woods?
10/02/2009 Quick Market and Liquidity Comments
09/27/2009 The Entitlement Culture
09/24/2009 A Trend Reversal for Commodities?
09/20/2009 2009 2Q Flow of Funds Update
09/13/2009 A Difficult September
09/10/2009 Dissecting the Intermediate Term Trend
09/07/2009 A Short-Term Correction in Commodities?
09/03/2009 Is Systemic Risk Truly Declining?
08/30/2009 Looking for a Short-Term Correction
08/23/2009 A Fear of Losing Money or a Fear of Losing Out?
08/20/2009 What about Natural Gas?
08/16/2009 The Next Decade
08/13/2009 Global Trends to 2025
08/09/2009 Global Leading Indicators Encouraging
08/07/2009 The Bank of England Increases Its Flexibility
08/02/2009 The Sentiment of the Masses
07/31/2009 The Fed Maintains its Flexibility
07/26/2009 A New Liquidity Indicator
07/23/2009 How Sustainable is this Rally?
07/19/2009 Europe Stuck in a Quagmire
07/12/2009 A Six-Month Review of our DJIA Timing System
07/10/2009 The Battle between the Bulls and the Bears
07/05/2009 Where is the “Bernanke Put?”
07/02/2009 Our 3Q 2009 Stock Market Outlook
06/28/2009 Liquidity Still a Headwind
06/21/2009 The June 2009 UCLA Anderson Forecast
06/18/2009 Systemic Risks Still Tilted to the Upside
06/14/2009 The Fed’s 1Q 2009 Flow of Funds Update
06/12/2009 Systemic Risks Tilted to the Upside
06/07/2009 Victims of Their Own Successes
06/04/2009 Global Central Bankers Making Headway But Only Slightly So
05/31/2009 Managing the Tail Risks
05/25/2009 A Day of Reflection
05/22/2009 The Road to Reform
05/17/2009 Crude Oil Market Remains Challenged
05/14/2009 The Democratization of Knowledge
05/10/2009 The Deleveraging in the US Financial Sector
05/07/2009 Foreign Liquidity Looks Encouraging
05/03/2009 Will the European Delivery be a Dud?
04/30/2009 Can the Baby Boomers Ever Retire?
04/26/2009 The April 2009 Global Financial Stability Report
04/23/2009 A Timely Liquidity Update
04/19/2009 Defense Spending at Crossroads
04/12/2009 Valuations and Technicals Still Look Bullish
04/09/2009 Japan’s Relative Strength Improving
04/05/2009 Is the Market Rally Sustainable?
04/02/2009 Fundamentals and Technicals Improving
03/22/2009 Levered Beta Plays Are No More
03/19/2009 Watch the Bottlenecks!
03/15/2009 It’s a Paradigm Shift, All Right
03/13/2009 Market Rally Now In Place
03/08/2009 Illiquidity Still Killing the Market
03/05/2009 Some Random Thoughts on Liquidity and Deleveraging
03/01/2009 Fund Flows Starting to Look Positive
02/22/2009 Numerous Positive Divergences Now Evident
02/15/2009 Is The Cult of Equities Dead?
02/13/2009 Another Review of our Liquidity Indicators
02/08/2009 Evaluating Industries and Competitive Advantage
02/05/2009 Housing Gets a Helping Hand
02/01/2009 A Dislocation in Europe?
01/30/2009 A Review of our Liquidity Indicators
01/25/2009 Asset Allocation for the Next 12 Months
01/18/2009 Still Not Too Late for a Rescue
01/11/2009 Tapping into the Brewery Market
01/08/2009 When Will the Deleveraging in the U.S. Equity Market End?
01/04/2009 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2009 - Part II
12/28/2008 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2009 - Part I
12/21/2008 2008 3Q Flow of Funds Update
12/18/2008 Selling Pressure Abating
12/14/2008 Demography is Destiny
12/07/2008 A Bleak Christmas, Indeed
12/04/2008 Automakers on Watch
11/30/2008 MarketThoughts' Thanksgiving Greetings
11/27/2008 Deleveraging Gets a Reprieve
11/23/2008 Valuations Too Compelling to Ignore
11/16/2008 Liquidity Pressures Waning?
11/09/2008 Liquidity Providers Will Get Rewarded
11/06/2008 More Action Needed
11/02/2008 A Golden Opportunity?
10/30/2008 Putting Recent Volatility Into Historical Perspective – Part II
10/26/2008 Just Who is Next?
10/19/2008 Where is the Irish Bailout?
10/16/2008 A "V-Bottom" is Possible
10/12/2008 The Collapse of the "Institutional Model"
10/09/2008 Following the British Lead?
10/05/2008 The Global Bailouts, Part II
10/02/2008 Double-Inverse ETFs and Tracking Error
09/30/2008 MarketThoughts Special Alert: Policy Makers Need to Act Now
09/28/2008 The Global Bailouts
09/25/2008 An Update on Valuations
09/21/2008 The Greatest Bank Restructuring Since Glass-Steagall
09/17/2008 MarketThoughts Special Commentary: They Don't Come Much Bigger than AIG and the GSEs
09/14/2008 Energy Complex a Short-Term Buy?
09/11/2008 Global Liquidation – Part II
09/07/2008 MarketThoughts Special Commentary: GSE Bailout Part II
09/06/2008 MarketThoughts Special Commentary: GSE Bailout
09/04/2008 The Correlations, They Are A-Changin'
08/31/2008 Financial Deleveraging Now in a Maturing Phase
08/28/2008 The Rise of the Chinese Middle Class
08/24/2008 Global Liquidity Still Challenged
08/22/2008 Lulled into Complacency
08/21/2008 MarketThoughts Special Update
08/14/2008 An Update on Gold
08/10/2008 An Upcoming Chinese Slowdown?
08/07/2008 Revisiting a Small-Cap Value Screen
08/03/2008 As Long as the Sun Shines
07/31/2008 Cash on the Sidelines
07/27/2008 The Reflation and Releveraging of Japan
07/24/2008 A Second Look at the Yield Curve
07/20/2008 The Period of Maximum Danger
07/13/2008 The Lender of Last Resort
07/10/2008 Capitulation Phase
07/06/2008 What's Next for Financials?
07/03/2008 Global Liquidation
06/29/2008 A Dramatic Rise in Stock Market Short Interest
06/26/2008 Where Have All the Stock Market Bulls Gone?
06/22/2008 Oil and the Stock Market
06/15/2008 The Capitalist and Productivity Engine
06/12/2008 Don't Underestimate the Impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds
06/08/2008 Capitulation Among the Oil Shorts?
06/05/2008 Some Different Looks at the Yield Curve
06/01/2008 Our Reasons for Turning Neutral on the U.S. Stock Market
05/29/2008 The Continuing Deleveraging in the U.S. Stock Market
05/21/2008 Special Alert: Market Liquidity Waning
05/18/2008 The Message of the NYSE A/D Line
05/15/2008 Structured / Quant Finance Boom Far From Over
05/11/2008 When Will Small Cap Turnaround Situations be a Buy?
05/08/2008 A Simple Small-Cap Value Screen
05/04/2008 Small Cap Value Stocks and the U.S. Dollar
05/01/2008 The Deleveraging in the U.S. Stock Market
04/27/2008 Reflections and Black Swans
04/20/2008 MarketThoughts’ Roadmap for the Next Six Months
04/17/2008 Some Random Thoughts
04/13/2008 The Great Deleveraging – Part II
04/10/2008 The 2008 Global Financial Stability Report
04/06/2008 The End of “Market Fundamentalism”
04/03/2008 Putting Recent Volatility into Historical Perspective
03/30/2008 An Instinct to Swarm
03/27/2008 This Game of Musical Chairs
03/23/2008 The Great Deleveraging
03/20/2008 Recurring Revenues and Industrial Distribution
03/17/2008 The Liquidity Put
03/16/2008 The Prospective Yield of Capital
03/11/2008 What's Ahead for the U.S. Stock Market?
03/10/2008 The Fed's Roadmap
03/09/2008 The Message of the MarketThoughts Global Diffusion Index
03/06/2008 Selecting Municipalities for Investment
03/02/2008 A Seismic Shift in the Commodity Market
02/28/2008 Summary of CFA Society of Los Angeles’ Annual Forecast Dinner
02/24/2008 The Rules of Engagement
02/21/2008 Suits Me
02/17/2008 Taylor Rule Targeting a Fed Funds Rate Below 2?
02/14/2008 Pension Reform Part III
02/10/2008 Contrarian and Sentiment Indicators
02/07/2008 Turning a Research Paper into a Trading System TRPITS, Part V
02/03/2008 Looking Beyond a Recession
01/31/2008 Getting Close to Resolution
01/27/2008 Putting Things into Perspective
01/24/2008 Look for a 50 Basis Point Cut on January 30th
01/20/2008 Capitulation this Week?
01/17/2008 The Value in Uncertainty
01/16/2008 Special Alert: America On Sale
01/13/2008 Reflation Soon?
01/09/2008 Special Alert: NASDAQ COMP Severely Oversold
01/08/2008 The State of the U.S. Market
01/06/2008 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2008 - Part II
01/03/2008 Using Public Information to Find a Trading System Edge
12/27/2007 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2008 - Part I
12/20/2007 Lessons Learned and Looking Forward
12/16/2007 When Will the Selling Stop?
12/13/2007 A Dozen Questions to Make You a Better Trader
12/09/2007 Global Economic Growth Continues to Disappoint
12/06/2007 Divergences Still Abound
12/02/2007 Too Little, Too Late?
11/29/2007 Global Stock Markets Now at Crossroads
11/25/2007 Quick “Market Thoughts” for the Upcoming Week
11/22/2007 A Quick Review of our Technical Indicators
11/18/2007 Should We Even Pay Attention to Financial Stocks?
11/15/2007 The Price of Conformism
11/11/2007 Looking for a Market Catalyst
11/08/2007 Glass Half Full For Value Stocks
11/04/2007 The Various Bear Markets
11/01/2007 Making Sense of all the Confusion
10/28/2007 Yield Spreads Telling a Different Story
10/25/2007 The Social Security and Medicare Burden
10/19/2007 Are Pharma Stocks Making You Ill?
10/14/2007 “The Conundrum” in Reverse?
10/11/2007 Germany Rolling Over?
10/07/2007 Global Economy Now Slowing Down
10/04/2007 Halloween, and Some Scary October Values
09/30/2007 Shifts in Market Behavior
09/27/2007 2007 2Q Flow of Funds Update
09/23/2007 Putting Things Into Proper Perspective
09/18/2007 Credit Crisis Most Likely Over. Now What?
09/16/2007 Tactical Trade on the U.S. Dollar?
09/13/2007 One Possible Model of VIX Stock Market Timing
09/09/2007 Spain – the Weakest Link – A Redux
09/06/2007 Uncertainty Still Abounds
09/02/2007 Does Short-Selling Have a Place in One's Portfolio?
08/30/2007 Real Action Should Come After Labor Day Weekend
08/26/2007 The Black Swan
08/23/2007 Credit Crunch
08/19/2007 A Quick Word on the Discount Rate and the “Ben Bernanke Grand Experiment”
08/16/2007 Bill Rempel on Potential Buying Candidates - Part II
08/12/2007 Market Not Close to Capitulation Just Yet
08/09/2007 Risks Still to the Downside
08/02/2007 Bill Rempel on Potential Buying Candidates
07/29/2007 An Update of our Technical Indicators
07/26/2007 An Update of the US Retirement Market – and its Potential Impacts
07/22/2007 The Most Vulnerable Sectors
07/15/2007 Where is Stock Market Liquidity Now Heading?
07/11/2007 Is the Correction Here?
07/08/2007 An Analysis of the Sixth (and Last) Cyclical Bull Market Within the 1929 to 1949 Secular Bear Market
07/04/2007 Market Timing Made EZ
07/01/2007 High Short Interest the Achilles' Heel of Bears
06/28/2007 Should We Be Worried About the 2007 Hurricane Season?
06/24/2007 The Times They Are a-Changin
06/21/2007 Let's Be Careful Out There
06/17/2007 Market Internals Weakening
06/10/2007 Market Not Close to a Bottom
06/07/2007 Mid-Week Liquidity Update: A Discussion of High Yields
06/03/2007 Liquidity and the Yen Carry Trade Redux
05/31/2007 Liquidity Conditions Continue to Deteriorate
05/28/2007 A Worrying Headwind for the U.S. Stock Market
05/24/2007 Leverage, Leverage, and more Leverage
05/20/2007 U.S. Stock Market Still Overbought and No Longer Bullish
05/17/2007 In the Gurus' Footsteps
05/13/2007 A Take on the 2007 Berkshire Annual Shareholders' Meeting
05/09/2007 A Change in our DJIA Timing System
05/06/2007 Building the Foundations for New Retirement Systems
05/03/2007 Dow's Longest Winning Streak Since Summer 1955 – What Now?
04/29/2007 Bill Rempel on Bon-Ton Stores
04/26/2007 Markets Getting Overbought But Still Bullish
04/22/2007 Rick Konrad on Expectations Investing
04/19/2007 A Review of the Stock Market
04/15/2007 The New Frontiers of Global Investing
04/12/2007 The Global Financial Stability Report – An Update
04/08/2007 Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators?
04/01/2007 Housing Market Decline Not Over Yet
03/29/2007 Is the Latest Correction Over?
03/25/2007 Brand Name Large Caps Still a Buy
03/22/2007 Rick Konrad on Financial Services Companies
03/18/2007 An Analysis of the Fifth Cyclical Bull Market Within the 1929 to 1949 Secular Bear Market
03/15/2007 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Update
03/11/2007 2006 4Q Flow of Funds Update
03/04/2007 Our Roadmap Ahead…
02/28/2007 The U.S. Stock Market – Where to From Here?
02/25/2007 An Update on Global Liquidity and Commodities
02/22/2007 Is the Rise of Margin Debt a Danger?
02/18/2007 A Potential Short in the Midst of a Bull Market?
02/15/2007 An Annuity That is Actually a Good Buy?
02/11/2007 Japan – A Final Goodbye to Deflation
02/08/2007 Taiwan Still Oversold?
02/04/2007 Bearish Sentiment Not Justified
02/01/2007 REIT Market Overheating?
01/28/2007 Retirement – Are You Ready?
01/25/2007 The View From 20,000 Feet
01/21/2007 Market Overbought But Uptrend Remains Intact
01/14/2007 The Permanent Income Hypothesis
01/11/2007 An Early 2007 Market Round Up
01/07/2007 Identifying Trends and Risks for 2007, Part 2
01/01/2007 Identifying Trends and Risks for 2007
12/28/2006 Resolutions for the New Year
12/21/2006 Margin Debt Approaching Record Highs
12/17/2006 What is Up with Natural Gas?
12/14/2006 The Bank of England on the UK's “Financial Dark Matter”
12/10/2006 The State of U.S. Households' Balance Sheets – a Third Quarter Update
12/03/2006 Asset Allocation for the Upcoming Year
11/30/2006 The Budget Deficit's Effect on the Dollar
11/26/2006 Random Thoughts for the Rest of this Year and Beyond
11/23/2006 Still a Believer in the Dollar Rally Scenario
11/19/2006 Random Thoughts on Life, Trend Changes, and Demographics
11/12/2006 A Year-End Surprise in the Dollar?
11/09/2006 Election Jitters and a Tidbit on South Korea
11/05/2006 Relative Valuation Still On the Side of Equities
10/29/2006 The Boom in Absolute Return Strategies Mutual Funds
10/26/2006 Not Too Hot and Not Too Cold?
10/22/2006 The Importance of the “Roll Return” in Commodity Futures Returns
10/20/2006 The World of Private Infrastructure Investments
10/15/2006 Stock Market Breadth Continues to Improve
10/12/2006 The Merrill Lynch World Wealth Report
10/08/2006 Are Things Really Different This Time?
10/01/2006 Corporate Profits – Where Do We Go From Here?
09/28/2006 Relative Valuations and a Review of Two Sentiment Indicators
09/24/2006 The State of U.S. Households' Balance Sheets
09/21/2006 The Yen Carry Trade Revisited
09/17/2006 Canadian Dollar Now the Lone Holdout
09/10/2006 Four-Year Cycle Low Now the Consensus
09/07/2006 Who Will be the Casualty in a Slowing Economy? (Part II)
09/04/2006 Let's Get the Action Started!
08/31/2006 Stock Market Action Encouraging
08/27/2006 Beware of Simplified Models
08/24/2006 Bank of England on Housing's Impact on Consumer Spending
08/20/2006 The Evolution of the Markets
08/17/2006 Sysco – A Beneficiary of Lower Inflation
08/13/2006 The New Pension Legislation and a Challenging Market
08/10/2006 Is Our Short-Term Scenario Busted?
08/06/2006 The Fed Meeting and My “Preferred” Scenario
08/03/2006 Who Will be the Casualty in a Slowing Economy?
07/30/2006 A Buying Point is Near
07/27/2006 An Update on the Markets
07/16/2006 An Analysis of the Cyclical Bull Markets Within the 1929 to 1949 Secular Bear Market
07/09/2006 The Bulls vs. the Bears
07/06/2006 Earnings Season Now a Priority
07/02/2006 Top Calling Remains a Thankless Job
06/29/2006 Spain – One of the Weakest Links in Europe
06/25/2006 Long Bonds Starting to be a Buy
06/22/2006 China - Just Humming Along and a Guest Commentary on Ninetowns Digital
06/18/2006 What is the ARMS Index Currently Saying?
06/15/2006 Middle East and Central Asia – Canary in the Coal Mine?
06/11/2006 Oil Shortages this Hurricane Season - Last Thing to Worry About
06/04/2006 Will We Ever See a World Awash With Oil Again?
06/01/2006 What is this World Coming to?
05/28/2006 Many U.S. Mega Caps Now Oversold
05/25/2006 More Important Questions for Economic Survival in the 21st Century
05/21/2006 A Lowry’s 90% Downside Day Revisited
05/18/2006 Solving the Chinese Riddle
05/14/2006 The Next Big Trend and the “Double Merit” Scenario
05/07/2006 Playing the Probabilities
05/04/2006 Requiem for a May-November Romance
04/30/2006 Divergences and the Dash to Trash
04/23/2006 The Message of the Fed Cleveland Median CPI
04/20/2006 Calling All Individual Stock Investors
04/16/2006 The New Financial Order?
04/13/2006 The Long Bond Secular Bull Market is Over
04/09/2006 Keep Your Head Straight
04/02/2006 Will Corporate Profits Continue to Outperform?
03/30/2006 The Long View
03/26/2006 A Market Slowdown Still Looms
03/23/2006 Market Internals Still Weakening
03/19/2006 Inflation Still a Factor
03/16/2006 Some Parting Thoughts
03/12/2006 Rising Rates Now a Given
03/09/2006 Some Comments on Warren Buffett and the Stock Market
03/05/2006 Where does the Evidence Point to?
02/26/2006 Market Now in Dangerous Zone
02/23/2006 What the Investment Folks are Really Saying
02/19/2006 Leverage and Divergences Getting Red Hot
02/16/2006 A Bird's Eye View of the Financial Markets
02/12/2006 Divergences Everywhere!
02/09/2006 The Bank of England Financial Stability Review
02/05/2006 Small Caps Are a “Sell”
01/29/2006 Will Small Cap Out-performance Continue?
01/26/2006 Bernanke and Brand Name Watch
01/22/2006 DJIA Timing System Short at 10,870
01/19/2006 2006 Brand Name Watch Update
01/15/2006 Getting Back to the Basics in 2006
01/12/2006 Mid-Week Market Evaluation
01/08/2006 Identifying Risks in the Upcoming Year
01/05/2006 An Analysis of the Cyclical Bull Markets Within the 1966 to 1982 Secular Bear Market
12/25/2005 A Merry Christmas to All
12/22/2005 Flattening Yield Curve: Does the Stock Market Care?
12/18/2005 Have Currency Investors Gone Loonie?
12/15/2005 Yield Curve Continues to Flatten
12/11/2005 Market Overbought But Not Out
12/08/2005 PetroDollars and Japan
12/04/2005 Global Liquidity Warning
11/27/2005 A Review of MarketThoughts
11/24/2005 A Short, Thanksgiving Commentary
11/20/2005 Copper in the Midst of Topping Out
11/17/2005 What Retail Investors are Telling Us, Once Again
11/13/2005 The Most Vulnerable Sector
11/10/2005 Seeking Guides for the Financial Markets
11/06/2005 Did the Retail Investor Just Show His Hand?
10/30/2005 The Concept of Risk
10/27/2005 The Ben Bernanke Grand Experiment
10/23/2005 Our MarketThoughts “Excess M” Indicator
10/20/2005 The Bill Gross' Way of Making Money
10/16/2005 The Mean Reversion Way of Making Money
10/13/2005 Market is Now Oversold - Can It Get more Oversold?
10/09/2005 Sell Financials and Commodities
10/02/2005 One Indicator Is Not Enough
09/29/2005 We Will Remain 25% Short, For Now
09/18/2005 Copper Prices - Too Overbought
09/15/2005 Understanding Six Sigma
09/11/2005 A World of Financial Engineering
09/08/2005 Major Brand Names Still Not Confirming
09/04/2005 Let the Action Finally Begin
08/28/2005 It is Time to be Careful
08/25/2005 All About Oil
08/21/2005 NYSE Short Interest Again at All-Time High
08/18/2005 Bank Index Breaking Down Further
08/14/2005 Our Position on the U.S. Dollar and an Update on Energy Prices
08/11/2005 Demographics do Matter
08/07/2005 A New Era?
08/04/2005 Worldwide Markets Rundown
07/31/2005 Natural Gas - The Other Bull?
07/28/2005 The Significance of the Equity Put-to-Call Ratio
07/24/2005 Nothing is Obvious - and 50% Short in Our DJIA Timing System
07/21/2005 Economic and Stock Market Observations
07/17/2005 What to do About the Housing Bubble?
07/14/2005 DJIA Timing System Going Short
07/10/2005 Our Ignorance About Crude Oil
07/07/2005 An Update on Brand Name Watching
07/03/2005 Our U.S. Dollar Index Revision
06/30/2005 The Elusive “Blow Off”
06/26/2005 Dow Theory Redux
06/19/2005 Correction in Store for the Market
06/16/2005 Where I See the Market Heading
06/12/2005 Economic Slowdown Still Continuing
06/09/2005 Critical Juncture in the Markets
06/05/2005 Long Bond Capitulation?
06/01/2005 An Update on the U.S. Housing Bubble
05/30/2005 The MarketThoughts Global Diffusion Index
05/26/2005 The Dow Theory in a Globalized World
05/22/2005 Continue to Overweight U.S. Equities
05/19/2005 Don’t be Complacent: Global Liquidity Waning
05/15/2005 Market Round-Up and the NYSE Specialist Short Ratio
05/12/2005 Investor or Speculator?
05/08/2005 The Six-Month Stock Market Timing Strategy
05/05/2005 A Tradable Bottom in Place
05/01/2005 The U.S. Dollar is Going Up
04/28/2005 The Art of Risk Consulting
04/24/2005 The Importance of Brand Name Watching
04/21/2005 The 80/20 Principle
04/17/2005 A Turn in the Tide
04/14/2005 The Global Financial Stability Report
04/10/2005 Globalization and China, Once Again
04/07/2005 On Jesse Livermore And His Legacy
04/03/2005 The Pope's Passing and Implications
03/31/2005 It is Now Late in the Cycle!
03/27/2005 Rising Rates not a Given
03/24/2005 More Downside to Come?
03/20/2005 Downside Acceleration?
03/13/2005 This is Still Like Watching Paint Dry
03/06/2005 Richard Russell now Bullish
02/27/2005 What is the Dow Theory Saying?
02/21/2005 No Man's Land
02/17/2005 What Type of Investor are You?
02/13/2005 China - Basic Background and Current Issues, Part III
02/10/2005 One more chance, Mr. Market?
02/06/2005 China – Basic Background and Current Issues, Part II
01/30/2005 China – Basic Background and Current Issues
01/23/2005 Short Term Outlook for the Stock Market
01/17/2005 Watch Out - Bank Index Now Breaking Down
01/13/2005 Thoughts From the Author
01/09/2005 It is Still Too Early for a Top
12/26/2004 Liquidity Still Reigns
12/18/2004 The Top Calling Continues
12/12/2004 Housing Bubble?
12/08/2004 Short-Term Update
12/05/2004 A Word of Caution
11/28/2004 The Trouble with the VIX
11/25/2004 A Thanksgiving Message
11/21/2004 When Will the Top Come?
11/14/2004 Liquidity Overwhelms All Else
11/07/2004 The Cyclical Bull Continues
10/31/2004 Election Jitters
10/24/2004 25% Short Position in the DJIA Covered
10/18/2004 Earnings Calendar Update
10/17/2004 This is Still a Secular Bear Market, You Know
10/13/2004 Retail Sector Update
10/10/2004 Market Correction and the Beginning of Earnings Season
10/06/2004 Short-Term Update on Oil and the Dow Theory
10/03/2004 Market Still at Crossroads
09/29/2004 Short-Term Update on the Stock Market
09/26/2004 Correction in the Works
09/19/2004 The Bull Market Continues - Part II
09/12/2004 The Bull Market Continues
09/05/2004 Let the Games Begin!
08/29/2004 Three Important Questions for my Readers
08/22/2004 The Cyclical Bull Resumes
08/15/2004 Do or Die Time for the Market
08/08/2004 Short-Term Targets for the Market
08/01/2004 Bull Rally Confirmed
07/28/2004 A Buying Opportunity?
07/26/2004 A Bottom Looks Near
07/19/2004 The Author is Turning Bullish - with a Tidbit on Outsourcing
07/06/2004 A Lowry's 90% Downside Day Short-Term Update
06/24/2004 Aging Demographics The Other Super Secular Trend
06/09/2004 Getting Slightly Bearish - A Short-Term Update
06/07/2004 Retail Sector Watch
06/01/2004 Bank Sector Watch
05/24/2004 Indecisive But Still Bullish
05/11/2004 Lowry's Intermediate Sell Signal Triggered
05/10/2004 A Quick and Short-Term Update on Gold and Silver
04/12/2004 The Stock Market - A Game of Chance
03/23/2004 Correction or the Beginning of an Imminent Crash?
03/01/2004 No Bull Exhaustion Yet
01/18/2004 This Bull Swing Will Only Die in Exhaustion
01/11/2004 Earnings Season - Trigger for the Correction?
12/19/2003 How Hot is Hot?
12/07/2003 Quiet December?
11/16/2003 The Big Picture
10/19/2003 Trend Still Up?
09/28/2003 Bulls Overpowered - Can They Still Hang On?
09/21/2003 The Bulls Win - Or Have They?
09/16/2003 Stock Market - Where to from here?
05/05/2002 Stock market right on the edge
04/28/2002 The BREAKDOWN continues
04/21/2002 Large caps say breakdown, while mid caps and ...
04/17/2002 On the verge of breakdown - once again
04/15/2002 Dow Industrials support convincingly broken
04/10/2002 Just a bounce or a new uptrend?
04/07/2002 Market at key support levels
04/03/2002 Downtrend confirmed
03/31/2002 Israel - the trigger event?
03/27/2002 Fear Still Lacking
03/24/2002 Potential Top
03/17/2002 Consolidation or Distribution?
03/13/2002 Short-covering ends
03/10/2002 Have the bears capitulated yet?
03/06/2002 Market Significantly Overbought
03/03/2002 Mixed Signals
02/27/2002 Top likely?
02/24/2002 Upside limited in our opinion
02/20/2002 Stunning move - to the upside
02/18/2002 Trading range will be resolved - to the downside
02/13/2002 Tick-tok, tick-tok
02/11/2002 Model Portfolio Updated
02/10/2002 Short-covering Friday
02/06/2002 Major decline underway?
02/03/2002 Economy Recovery (Again)? Not.
01/31/2002 Short-Term Overbought
01/30/2002 Comments will be short and sweet tonight
01/27/2002 Recession over. ECRI says so!
01/20/2002 Earnings Week
Individual Stocks Archive
11/11/2011 Keeping the Faith Despite the Noise
09/25/2011 The Unknown Unknowns
09/09/2011 Profit from Folly- It is Expensive to be Defensive
08/25/2011 The Behavioral Impact on Asset Prices
06/30/2011 Mike Tyson and the Economic Punch in the Mouth
06/10/2011 Don't Look Back in Anger or Forward in Fear But Around in Awareness
05/27/2011 Geopolitics, Economics and Emotions
05/06/2011 There'd Be Days Like This
04/24/2011 Investment Thinking a la Wayne Gretzky
04/07/2011 Walking on Broken Glass
03/18/2011 Finding Value in an Economic Tsunami
03/03/2011 Innovation and Creating Markets - What to Look for
02/10/2011 Innovation as an Investment Theme
01/20/2011 Food Fight
01/07/2011 New Year's Resolutions
12/16/2010 Flat is Good Enough
12/02/2010 Beer and Power but No Rare Earth
11/18/2010 Avoiding Safety as a Strategy?!
11/07/2010 Being Optimistic Despite QE2
10/08/2010 Mother Nature Sides with the Hidden Flaw
09/23/2010 Cyclical or Not?
09/09/2010 The Death of Equities Revisited
08/26/2010 From Bleak to Dire-Hindenburg Omen and Fear
08/12/2010 The FOMC - Old News is No News!
07/30/2010 Chasing Yields and Avoiding Taxes - Buybacks May Be the Only Answer
07/09/2010 It Ain't Easy to Quit
06/25/2010 Chasing Yield and Bank Reform does not mean Reformed Bankers
06/11/2010 The Discipline of Dividends- Heading North
05/27/2010 Only the Strong Survive
05/07/2010 The Greek Oil Slick
04/23/2010 Healthcare Reform - Is the Infection Spreading?
04/08/2010 Let's Be Careful Out There - Sentiment in Secondaries
03/18/2010 St. Patrick's Day and the Dash for Trash
03/04/2010 Traits of the Successful Investor, and the Changing Nature of Brand Loyalty
02/11/2010 A Shaky Start Does Not a Year Make
01/28/2010 Finding Efficiency in Government
01/14/2010 How is This Recovery Different?
12/18/2009 Stocking Stuffers
12/03/2009 Getting Defensive in Defense Stocks
11/19/2009 The Great Depression in Listings
11/06/2009 Is Burlington Northern the New Coke?
10/22/2009 Everything We Hear is an Opinion; Everything We See is a Perspective
09/18/2009 Brinks Home Security Holdings CFL
08/27/2009 Wringing Hands Not Rolling Up Sleeves
07/16/2009 Reaching for a Cool One
06/25/2009 Diving In
05/28/2009 Water Water Everywhere
04/16/2009 Keeping Your Feet on the Ground but What a Rally!
03/26/2009 Techonomics and the ATM
02/26/2009 Thoughts on Energy after the Price Collapse
02/19/2009 A Dose of “Anti-Depression”
01/22/2009 Waiting for the Fat Pitch
01/15/2009 Crusin’ Into the Sunset
12/11/2008 Money for Nuthin
11/20/2008 Frozen on the Bridge of the Titanic
11/13/2008 Charting Best Buy BBY
10/23/2008 Staying in the Game
09/18/2008 Surfing the Tsunami
07/17/2008 Stormy Weather
06/19/2008 When Cheap Ain't Good Enough
05/22/2008 Marrying Various Investment Themes
04/24/2008 Rick Konrad on Sysco
09/20/2007 Rick Konrad on Legg Mason and HNI Corporation
06/14/2007 Bill Rempel on Donegal Group
04/05/2007 Seeing the Forest for the Trees
03/08/2007 Air T Incorporated – An Out-of-Favor Microcap in the Transportation Sector
01/18/2007 Keep on Trucking!
01/04/2007 Kraft – A Compelling Buy Based on Technicals and Sentiment
12/07/2006 I Hate Pharma
11/16/2006 “Identifying” the Next Value/Growth Stock: Cogent Systems (COGT)
11/02/2006 Getting On the Entercom
10/05/2006 A Big Chinese Power: Huaneng Power International
09/14/2006 A Fine Clothier that Bill Actually Likes: Hartmarx
07/20/2006 An Out-of-Consensus Small Cap: Ennis, Inc.
07/13/2006 Beasley Broadcast Group
06/08/2006 Five-Month Review of Bill's 2006 Extravaganza of Predictions
05/11/2006 Gannett a Stand-out in the Newspaper Industry
04/27/2006 Is Dell a Buy Now?
04/06/2006 Coca-Cola Still a Sell
03/02/2006 2006 Extravaganza of Predictions - A Two-Month Update
02/02/2006 What I like About Liz
12/29/2005 A 2006 “Extravaganza” of Predictions
12/01/2005 A Review of Bill's Stock Picks and KND
11/03/2005 Train Wrecks in the Stock Market
10/06/2005 Playing “Chicken” With the Market – Is It a Bright Idea?
06/23/2005 The Art of Value Investing
03/17/2005 GM - A Sign of Things to Come?
03/10/2005 Buffett Bashing in Perspective
03/03/2005 Coca-Cola - A Value Stock?
02/24/2005 Reining in Fannie Mae
01/20/2005 Generic Drugs Industry
11/04/2004 Philip Fisher's Fifteen Points in Picking a Stock
09/16/2004 ALDA, SMH
08/04/2004 CALM - A Rebuttal Against Herb Greenberg at CBS M
08/01/2004 CALM (again)
06/28/2004 ALDA, ALDN, CADA
05/18/2004 REDE, MTEX, CALD, LTON
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