'09 Q3 SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:01 pm Post subject: '09 Q3 SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS

Short View: Great Recession

By John Authers, Investment editor

Published: June 25 2009 20:26 | Last updated: June 25 2009 20:26

After deep confusion, elements of agreement are emerging. Official economists and investors in different countries that have been affected in different ways by the crisis agree on some points.

Wednesday’s economic forecast from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development expressed the emerging orthodoxy as well as any.

Anyone reading a year ago what the OECD had to say would have been horrified. It said the nadir for the developed world had not been reached and a recovery would be so weak that unemployment in the US and western Europe would exceed 10 per cent and stay there.

Yet anyone reading it during the worst months of the crisis late last year would have been relieved. The OECD is arguing that a Great Depression induced by a banking collapse has been averted; we will have a Great Recession instead.

The OECD said that extremely aggressive policy centred on cheap money should stay in force. Only a few weeks ago, this was contentious; now it is accepted.

A disparate group of central banks with different priorities seem to agree. The US Federal Reserve this week refused to offer any guidance on when it would exit from its loose monetary policy; the European Central Bank added liquidity to money markets much more aggressively than had been expected; and it seems the Swiss National Bank pushed down its own currency.

So there is the consensus: disaster averted, no strong recovery as the developed world relies on China for its growth, and no quick end to extreme policy measures.

This consensus is consistent with another consensus, that the nadir for share prices in March was “the” bottom. If the consensus is right, the March bottom should hold. Let us hope it is right.
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 12:25 pm Post subject:

I, and more than a few others at this point, am looking for a good Santa Rally. If we stay in tact through Oct. Tax selling becomes a dilemma. Rolling Eyes

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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 10:16 am Post subject:

If this was a panic in the true, old, sense of the word, then that P/C reading would be expected. It would also have an entirely different meaning coming "out of the hole" than in 07 "blue skies." It may even imply that the market is seen in the same light as the economy--not so hot.

Now the pressure is on vis-a-vis Santa Rally--perhaps the first Christmas that will have to be "hedged" in four years....and, dare I say it? another Steeler Superbowl. The Bears have October but we have the Stimulus flow into an inventory rebalance. The first decent big-bank quarter will be a big turn for sentiment.

The biggest risk to this market is a sudden and direct turn-around in the economy--THAT'S the rally to sell.

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HenryTo · Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 9:09 am Post subject:

10-day equity P/C ratio now at 0.56 - its lowest level since July 2007.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:38 am Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:50 pm Post subject:

Frightening some:

http://www.thekirkreport.com/2009/08/widest-discounts-from-book-value.html
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 5:01 pm Post subject:

At long last seeing some "discrimination." It's enough to bring out the bearishness....bringing the chinese bulls to "the mainland" more like it:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2009/08/divergences.html#links
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 10:21 am Post subject:

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25887563
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rffrydr · Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 10:05 am Post subject:

It's becoming increasingly clear that today's bull is a closet bull. He buys for show and offsets with call writes, skewing the calls lower (not the puts higher). This is confirmed in the rising volumes on the covered call ETFs. What's the effect?

Could very well be nothing as the economy should be at his back. But no max-pain strikes on friday and if there isn't a big delta-hedging writedown early next week that just might put our closet bulls back out of the market....which they would need to buy back in....

A look back:

http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/realmoneyprospecialrm/10049147.html

Talk is of one of the greatest cash raises in all time going into end-of-year. That's underwriting for banks...and that's how the weak become strong. Bank rally is still considered short sqeeze however. Early in that game.

Oil still a wild-card.
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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2229

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 8:48 am Post subject:

They're buying the NAZ weakness right up to and including HP:

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3000

Deere's on there too a little farther down.
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Aug 17, 2009 7:37 am Post subject:

960 first gap/fib support; below that, 900.
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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2229

Raising cash, think I can buy back in cheaper in a bit.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Aug 12, 2009 1:11 pm Post subject:

Nice recovery from wacky options-ex wednesday in face of record treas. auction. Toll's first profit in 4 yrs is irresistible.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: Recovery?

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2229