ECRI: Monthly Future Inflation Gauge Readings

[HenryTo]

ECRI's future inflation gauge now at a five-year high. Courtesy of MplsBear at wallstreetbear.com:
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U.S. inflation pressures rose in Aug - report
Fri Sep 2, 2005 09:39 AM ET

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Higher interest rates and input prices, an increase in loan activity and stronger job growth all pushed U.S. inflation higher in August, a report said on Friday.

However, the rising inflation pressure was partly offset by supplier delivery times, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said.

ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 121.1 in August from a upwardly revised 119.7 in July, the research group said.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, climbed to 4.1 percent from an upwardly revised 2.3 percent.

"The U.S. future inflation gauge is now at a five-year high, suggesting that cyclical inflation pressures in the U.S. are intensifying," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director for the ECRI.

[HenryTo]

FYI
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U.S. FIG at 7-Month Low
Reuters
July 02, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures fell to a 7-month low in June, reflecting disinflationary forces in the industrial sector, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 97.4 in June from a revised 99.7 in May, which was originally reported at 98.9.

"Underlying inflation pressures are easing further, although deflation dangers are not yet back on the table," ECRI said in a statement.

The USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to 5.7 percent in June from a revised 14.0 percent. The May figure was originally reported at 12.5 percent.

[nodoodahs]

Inflation pressures ebbing? No sign of significant CPI pressure in sight, no sign of Fed +rate action in sight.

However, if the current situation in Ts continues to bubble up, there may be a time to short the long bond soon ... but only for a month or so, and at about 200+ bps below where the so-called "bond vigilantes" THOUGHT they'd be shorting the long bond ...

It's been a while since I ran my bond models (and wouldn't dream of proposing any hypothetical 2-3 year or 5+ year buys in Ts here), but I'm guessing they'd say the same thing they said a month ago, only louder.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[rffrydr]

Achutan on Bloomie with some encouraging words: monthly numbers always finicky but rebound slowdown is normal and 17 of his 19 country indicators positive--count out Spain.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

FYI
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U.S. Inflation Gauge Falls To Five-Month Low
Reuters
June 04, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures fell to a five-month low in May as commodity price pressures ebbed, said a research group on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 98.9 in May from a revised 101.8 in April. The original number reported in April was 100.8.

"With the USFIG falling to a five-month low, underlying inflation pressures appear to be ebbing," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said in a statement.

The May USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to 12.5 percent from a revised 23.4 percent. The April figure was originally reported at 21.2 percent.

[HenryTo]

Inflationary pressures remain subdued, per the ECRI:
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May 07, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures eased slightly in April after hitting an 18-month high in March, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 100.8 in April from a revised 101.0 in March, originally reported as 102.1.

"After a strong surge last year that took deflation off the table, the USFIG has flattened out in 2010, suggesting that inflation is not a near-term danger," ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said in a statement.

The gauge was pulled down by disinflationary moves in all components apart from employment and commodity prices, he said.

The March USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to 21.2 percent from a revised 26.5 percent in March, originally reported as 28.9 percent.

[HenryTo]

A pause in inflationary pressures last month - but the upward cyclical pressures continue to build:
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US inflation pressures fall 1st time in 11 mo-ECRI
Fri Mar 5, 2010 8:12pm IST

NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures dipped in February after rising for 10 straight months, but upward cyclical trends in prices still hold, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, slipped to 101.4 in February from 102.1 in January, which was revised slightly higher from an original 102.0.

While the gauge's January dip follows 10 months of consecutive growth in the index, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said the group maintains its forecast that prices will continue to move steadily upward.

"Despite its first downtick in 11 months, the USFIG remains in a cyclical uptrend, with underlying inflation pressures continuing to trend upward," said Achuthan.

The December USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, also fell, to 31.3 percent from 38.0 percent in January, which was revised up from 37.8 percent.

[HenryTo]

FYI - U.S. inflationary pressues continue to build, according to the ECRI.

U.S. Inflation Pressures Begin to Mount
Reuters
February 05, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures rose for the tenth straight month in January, indicating a steady rise in prices in the coming months, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 102.0 in January from 99.0 in December, which was revised up from an initial reading of 98.2.

"With the USFIG now advancing for ten straight months, underlying inflation pressures are in a sustained cyclical upswing, promising higher inflation in the coming months," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The January USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, climbed to 37.6 percent from 33.8 percent, which was revised higher from an original 31.8 percent.

[HenryTo]

FYI. Inflationary pressures building (confirmed by TIPS) but it's still difficult to see where it's going to come from, given so much overcapacity in both manufacturing and the labor market. The country to watch is still China - as excessive spending/borrowing there may cause commodities to rise further at least for the rest of this quarter.

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U.S. Inflation Pressures Begin to Mount in DecemberReuters
January 08, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures rose for the ninth straight month in December, indicating a steady rise in prices in the coming months, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 98.2 in December from 95.6 in November, which was revised slightly lower from 95.7.

It was the ninth consecutive month the index has risen. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are building steadily, pointing to higher inflation in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The December USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, climbed to 31.8 percent from 27.3 percent in November, which was revised higher from an original 26.8 percent.

[HenryTo]

According to the ECRI, deflationary pressures are certainly off the table. But higher, sustained inflation is still elusive - again, suggesting that the Fed will remain on hold for at least the rest of this year:
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US inflation pressure up but still non-issue--ECRI

Thu Jul 2, 2009 9:40am EDT

NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures rose in June, continuing to come off 51-year lows touched earlier this year but still indicating that inflation is not an issue for the economy, a research group said on Thursday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 81.9 in June from a downwardly revised 79.7 in May, which was originally reported as 79.8. "The USFIG has now risen for three straight months, but isstill not far above March's 51-year low," said Lakshman

Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "Deflation worries should clearly have dissipated, but it is still too soon to predict a decisive upswing in U.S. inflation." The gauge was pushed higher in June primarily due to inflationary moves in commodity prices, Achuthan said. The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, jumped in June to minus 18.5 percent from minus 27.1 percent in May, which was revised lower from minus 26.9 percent.

[HenryTo]

FYI - ECRI's FIG signaling a reversal from the latest deflationary trends - but chances are that the Fed will remain on hold for at least the rest of this year:
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US inflation pressures up from 50-yr lows-ECRI
Fri Jun 5, 2009 9:43am EDT

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures continued to rise in May from March's 50-year lows, indicating that current steady economic growth should ease fears of both deflation and hyperinflation, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 79.8 in May from 78.1 in April, which was revised lower from 78.2.

The group's inflation gauge hit a 51-year low in March, suggesting that policy makers would continue to focus on economic growth as inflation is not an imminent concern. "The USFIG has risen for two straight months after hitting a 51-year low in March, warranting neither deflation worries
nor fears of an inflationary upsurge at this time," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The gauge was pushed higher due to inflationary moves in measures of commodity prices and vendor performance, Achuthan said. The May USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, climbed to minus 26.9 percent from 33.8 percent in April, which was revised lower from minus 33.7 percent.

[HenryTo]

FYI - ECRI's FIG still new 51-year lows:
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US inflation pressures rise slightly in April-ECRI

NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures rose slightly in April after hitting a 51-year low in March, indicating policymakers should continue to focus on economic growth, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 78.2 in April from revised 77.9 in March.

"The USFIG is still near March's 51-year low, affirming that inflation is far from being a near-term concern," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The gauge was pushed up by inflationary moves in measures of vendor performance, loans, commodity prices and labor market conditions, partly offset by a disinflationary move in a measure of interest rates, Achuthan said.

The USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell in April to minus 33.7 percent from a revised minus 38.0 percent in March.

[HenryTo]

Latest ECRI Future Inflation Gauge reading:
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NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures fell again in March to a new 50-year low, indicating continued declines in consumer prices, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, slipped to 79.3 in March from 81.0 in February, revised higher from 80.9.

The reading was the lowest since June 1958, when it stood at 79.3.

"The USFIG is now at a new 50-year low and remains in a clear cyclical downswing, asserting that inflation is still a non-issue," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The gauge slid lower due to weaker labor market conditions and higher interest rates. That was partly offset by positive contributions from higher commodity prices, Achuthan said.

Still, the USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, edged higher in March to minus 35.9 percent from minus 36.7 percent in February.

[HenryTo]

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge readings declining rapidly from a global standpoint. Time for the Euro Zone to continue to ease and for Japan to ramp up its monetary base and potentially go back to a zero interest rate policy:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/104684-ecri-worldwide-inflation-continues-to-recede

[HenryTo]

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge readings from across the world. Definitely time for the UK to ease, and for the ECB to start moving soon:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98389-ecri-future-inflation-indexes-indicate-that-worldwide-inflation-is-receding

[rffrydr]

The flipside, many more than that are getting gas cards--backdoor COLA from the old days. $3 gas should cure that however.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!