Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

HenryTo

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 8:48 pm Post subject:

Week ending 7/7/2006:

WLI = 136.9
Annual ROC = 0.2%

Fed is going to be hard-pressed to justify another rate increase on August 8th. It looks like we're done here.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 5:03 pm Post subject:

Week ending 6/30/2006:

WLI = 136.8
Annual ROC = 0.9%

Annual ROC again making a new low. It increasingly looks like that the Fed may stop with a Fed Funds rate of 5.25% and won't hike at the August 8th meeting.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:07 am Post subject:

Week ending 6/23/2006:

WLI = 136.0
Annual ROC = 1.2%

Annual ROC again making a new low.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2006 9:15 am Post subject:

Week ending 6/16/2006:

WLI = 136.8
Annual ROC = 1.4%

Annual ROC making a new low here. Again, it is time for the Fed to pause after the June 29th hike.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2006 1:06 pm Post subject:

Week ending 6/9/2006:

WLI = 137.5
Annual ROC = 1.5%

Continues to reinforce the notion that the Fed will hike for the last time on June 29th.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:50 am Post subject:

Week ending 6/2/2006:

WLI = 137.4
Annual ROC = 2.1%

This reinforces the notion that the Fed will hike for the last time on June 29th. But again, whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point hike is still up in the air. For now, given the way that the stock market has been performing, I believe it will be 25 instead of 50.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:31 am Post subject:

Week ending 5/26/2006:

WLI = 136.4
Annual ROC = 2.5%

Finally - some slowdown in the latest WLI reading from the ECRI. For now, it looks like that the June 29th hike will be the last one for this cycle. The only question remaining is whether it will be a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point hike.

HenryTo · Posted: Tue May 30, 2006 6:41 pm Post subject:

Week ending 5/19/2006:

WLI = 136.9
Annual ROC = 3.2%

Again, no slowdown despite the weakness in the stock market for the week ending May 19, 2006.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat May 20, 2006 8:29 am Post subject:

Week ending 5/12/2006:

WLI = 137.6
Annual ROC = 3.4%

Still no slowdown despite the two-day plunge in equity prices for the week ending May 12. Hmmm...

HenryTo · Posted: Sat May 13, 2006 11:24 am Post subject:

Week ending 5/5/2006:

WLI = 138.3
Annual ROC = 3.3%

Definitely no slowdown - but please keep in mind that these readings were taken right before the two-day plunge in equity prices going into this weekend. Fed should still have no hesistation of hiking by an additional 25 basis points going into the June 28th Fed meeting at this point.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat May 06, 2006 8:39 am Post subject:

Week ending 4/28/2006:

WLI = 138.5
Annual ROC = 3.1%

No slowdown here...

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:23 pm Post subject:

Week ending 4/21/2006:

WLI = 137.1
Annual ROC = 2.9%

Still chuggin' along...

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:00 pm Post subject:

Week ending 4/14/2006:

WLI = 137.1
Annual ROC = 3.0%

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2006 8:07 pm Post subject:

Week ending 4/7/2006:

WLI = 137.3
Annual ROC = 2.8%

HenryTo · Week ending 3/31/2006: WLI = 138.0 ROC = 2.6%

Week ending 3/31/2006:

WLI = 138.0
ROC = 2.6%