Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

HenryTo

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:46 am Post subject:

ECRI weekly leading index still pointing to subdued growth in the U.S. economy but definitely not a recession at this point:
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Week ending 9/8/2006:

WLI = 136.6
Annual ROC = -0.9%

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:45 am Post subject:

I apologize for the delay in posting this.

Week ending 9/1/2006:

WLI = 135.7
Annual ROC = -1.3%

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Sep 01, 2006 7:42 pm Post subject:

Week ending 8/25/2006:

WLI = 135.1
Annual ROC = -1.7%

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:20 am Post subject:

Week ending 8/18/2006:

WLI = 135.2
Annual ROC = -1.6%

WLI now at 179-week low but not pointing to a recession just yet.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 2:29 pm Post subject:

Week ending 8/11/2006:

WLI = 135.3
Annual ROC = -1.4%

Jury still out but it looks like that the Fed paused at the "right time." Oil prices have moderated and it looks like metal prices (maybe even nickel?) will do the same.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 11:19 pm Post subject:

Week ending 8/4/2006:

WLI = 135.5
Annual ROC = -0.4%

Year-over-year change has finally fallen into negative territory...

Note: This was revised to 135.1 and -0.8%, respectively (8/1 Cool

.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:30 am Post subject:

Great find. Thanks rffrydr!

In other news, for the week ending 7/28/2006:

WLI = 135.4
Annual ROC = 0.1%

Fed funds futures now only pricing in a 16% chance of a rate hike on August 8th.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:02 am Post subject:

Chart of the day has given us this:

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20060804.htm?T

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 5:45 pm Post subject:

Week ending 7/21/2006:

WLI = 136.3
Annual ROC = 0.6%

As of the close on Friday, Fed Funds futures are only pricing in a 26% chance of a 25 basis point hike on August 8th.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:54 am Post subject:

Week ending 7/14/2006:

WLI = 136.9
Annual ROC = 0.3%

Given the above readings, and given continued increases in productivity (e.g. both HPQ and Lenovo catching up with Dell), the Fed should definitely pause on August 8th...

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 8:48 pm Post subject:

Week ending 7/7/2006:

WLI = 136.9
Annual ROC = 0.2%

Fed is going to be hard-pressed to justify another rate increase on August 8th. It looks like we're done here.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 5:03 pm Post subject:

Week ending 6/30/2006:

WLI = 136.8
Annual ROC = 0.9%

Annual ROC again making a new low. It increasingly looks like that the Fed may stop with a Fed Funds rate of 5.25% and won't hike at the August 8th meeting.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:07 am Post subject:

Week ending 6/23/2006:

WLI = 136.0
Annual ROC = 1.2%

Annual ROC again making a new low.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2006 9:15 am Post subject:

Week ending 6/16/2006:

WLI = 136.8
Annual ROC = 1.4%

Annual ROC making a new low here. Again, it is time for the Fed to pause after the June 29th hike.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2006 1:06 pm Post subject:

Week ending 6/9/2006:

WLI = 137.5
Annual ROC = 1.5%

Continues to reinforce the notion that the Fed will hike for the last time on June 29th.