Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[HenryTo]

Week ending 8/11/2006:

WLI = 135.3
Annual ROC = -1.4%

Jury still out but it looks like that the Fed paused at the "right time." Oil prices have moderated and it looks like metal prices (maybe even nickel?) will do the same.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 8/4/2006:

WLI = 135.5
Annual ROC = -0.4%

Year-over-year change has finally fallen into negative territory...

Note: This was revised to 135.1 and -0.8%, respectively (8/1.

[HenryTo]

Great find. Thanks rffrydr!

In other news, for the week ending 7/28/2006:

WLI = 135.4
Annual ROC = 0.1%

Fed funds futures now only pricing in a 16% chance of a rate hike on August 8th.

[rffrydr]

Chart of the day has given us this:

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20060804.htm?T

[HenryTo]

Week ending 7/21/2006:

WLI = 136.3
Annual ROC = 0.6%

As of the close on Friday, Fed Funds futures are only pricing in a 26% chance of a 25 basis point hike on August 8th.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 7/14/2006:

WLI = 136.9
Annual ROC = 0.3%

Given the above readings, and given continued increases in productivity (e.g. both HPQ and Lenovo catching up with Dell), the Fed should definitely pause on August 8th...

[HenryTo]

Week ending 7/7/2006:

WLI = 136.9
Annual ROC = 0.2%

Fed is going to be hard-pressed to justify another rate increase on August 8th. It looks like we're done here.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 6/30/2006:

WLI = 136.8
Annual ROC = 0.9%

Annual ROC again making a new low. It increasingly looks like that the Fed may stop with a Fed Funds rate of 5.25% and won't hike at the August 8th meeting.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 6/23/2006:

WLI = 136.0
Annual ROC = 1.2%

Annual ROC again making a new low.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 6/16/2006:

WLI = 136.8
Annual ROC = 1.4%

Annual ROC making a new low here. Again, it is time for the Fed to pause after the June 29th hike.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 6/9/2006:

WLI = 137.5
Annual ROC = 1.5%

Continues to reinforce the notion that the Fed will hike for the last time on June 29th.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 6/2/2006:

WLI = 137.4
Annual ROC = 2.1%

This reinforces the notion that the Fed will hike for the last time on June 29th. But again, whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point hike is still up in the air. For now, given the way that the stock market has been performing, I believe it will be 25 instead of 50.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 5/26/2006:

WLI = 136.4
Annual ROC = 2.5%

Finally - some slowdown in the latest WLI reading from the ECRI. For now, it looks like that the June 29th hike will be the last one for this cycle. The only question remaining is whether it will be a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point hike.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 5/19/2006:

WLI = 136.9
Annual ROC = 3.2%

Again, no slowdown despite the weakness in the stock market for the week ending May 19, 2006.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 5/12/2006:

WLI = 137.6
Annual ROC = 3.4%

Still no slowdown despite the two-day plunge in equity prices for the week ending May 12. Hmmm...