Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/16/2010

WLI = 120.7
Annual ROC = -10.5%

Last week's WLI was revised to 120.7, while the annual ROC was unchanged.

WLI Unchanged, Growth Rate Drops
Reuters
July 23, 2010

(Retuers) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged in the latest week, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 120.7 in the week ended July 16, unchanged from the week earlier, which was originally reported as 120.6.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 10.5 percent from minus 9.8 percent a week ago, its lowest level since May 15, 2009, when it stood at minus 11.1 percent.

[rffrydr]

That's good enough for the "double-dippers"...at no time....
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/9/2010

WLI = 120.6
Annual ROC = -9.8%

Last week's WLI was revised to 120.6, while the annual ROC was revised to -9.1%.

US econ growth gauge unchanged in latest week-ECRI

July 16 (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged in the latest week, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 120.6 for the week ended July 9, unchanged from the previous week, which was originally reported as 121.5. The index was last below 120.6 in the week of July 24, 2009, when it measured 120.3, according to ECRI. The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 9.8 percent from minus 9.1 percent the previous week, originally reported as minus 8.3 percent.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/2/2010

WLI = 121.5
Annual ROC = -8.3%

Last week's WLI was revised to 122.3, while the annual ROC was revised to -7.6%.

WLI Growth Falls Further
Reuters
July 09, 2010

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to the lowest since July 2009, indicating that the economy will continue to slow, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.5 for the week ended July 2, down from 122.3 in the prior week. That was the lowest level since July 24, 2009 when it stood at 120.3. The index's annualized growth rate fell to -8.3 percent after a -7.6 percent growth rate a week earlier.

[rffrydr]

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 6/25/2010

WLI = 122.2
Annual ROC = -7.7%

No revisions to last week's readings.

WLI Growth Drops
ECRI
July 02, 2010

(ECRI) - A measure of future economic growth fell slightly in the latest week, while its annualized growth rate continued to decline, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 122.2 in the week ended June 25 from 122.9 the week before.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 7.7 percent from minus 6.9 percent the prior week.

That was its lowest level since May 22, 2009 when it stood at minus 8.7 percent.

[rffrydr]

US economy

Published: June 29 2010 15:12 | Last updated: June 29 2010 18:46

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 6/18/2010

WLI = 122.9
Annual ROC = -6.9%

Last week's WLI was revised to 122.4, while the annual ROC was revised to -5.8%.

WLI Growth at 56-Week Low
Reuters
June 25, 2010

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S.economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, but its annualized growth rate continued to fall, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.9 in the week ended June 18, up from 122.4 the prior week, originally reported as 122.5.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 6.9 percent from a revised minus 5.8 percent, originally reported as minus 5.7 percent. That was its lowest level since May 22, 2009, when it stood at minus 8.7 percent. "After falling for six weeks, the uptick in the level of the Weekly Leading Index suggests some tentative stabilization, but the continuing decline in its growth rate to a 56-week low underscores the inevitability of the slowdown," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 6/11/2010

WLI = 122.5
Annual ROC = -5.7%

Last week's WLI was revised to 123.0, while the annual ROC was revised to -3.7%.

WLI Growth Drops
Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2010

(Dow Jones) - Growth in the ECRI weekly leading index fell further into negative territory.

The growth rate for the week of June 11 weakened to -5.7%, down from -3.7% in the previous week, which had been the first negative reading in almost a year.

"Despite the WLI's rapid drop over the last six weeks, its downturn has not been sustained enough to signal an imminent recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI director. Growth in the May index dropped to 1.5% from 14.1% in April.

[rffrydr]

We're still in the plus in Philly:

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/

What makes this a big plus, to my way of thinking, is the ZIRP backdrop. Latchuthan has learned to put a discount on that market component of his series. He's definitely more optimistic than his indicator. Maybe that's a "third world" thing.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 6/4/2010

WLI = 123.2
Annual ROC = -3.5%

Last week's WLI was revised to 124.0, while the annual ROC was revised to 0.3%.

WLI Drops, But No Double-Dip Yet
Barron's
June 11, 2010

(Barron's) - The Economic Cycle Research Institute today offered up its view of last week’s “weekly leading indicators,” a closely watched private mailing, today showed a dip in the indicator for the week ended last Friday to 123.2, a decline of 3.5%, in contrast to the 0.3% rise the preceding week.

The Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan, however, remarked that “While the plunge in WLI growth to a one-year low assures a significant slowing in U.S. economic growth in the coming months, the recent weakness has not lasted long enough to signal a new recession threat.”

The ECRI notice follows better-than-expected consumer confidence data this morning from the University of Michigan, but also a smaller-than-expected gain in business inventories in Apri, this morning’s weak retail sales data for May and, of course, last Friday’s disappointing jobs number.

[smile]

[Ven]

Since the excess liquidity has yet to be withdrawn,
how do you explain the market's recent breakdown if QE was a panacea?

The fact is no market goes straight to zero.

Go back and look at the inverted h&s and the lack of panic by insiders after C's bailout in Nov. '08 and you'll see the Jan-March '09 plunge was intentional.

The market reached extreme oversold levels and only needed reason to bounce.

QE was a sentiment catalyst or merely coincided with the turn.

Don't believe the Japan scenario if you don't want to...I see there are many permabulls here.

Technical breakdown in the market.
The drop in LI's.
Corporate bond and high yield collapses.
Forex developments.

All suggest that we have started C-down.

[smile]

[Ven]

Here's a reminder of what QE does to a market.
Just look at this 20 year chart of Japan's Nikkei.

http://www.forecast-chart.com/historical-nikkei-225.html

Weakend currencies may cause short gains in markets,
but they do not support bull markets.

Look at all charts in any country in bonds, equities, commodities, whatever you wish to look at.

Strong markets always correlate with strong currencies.

I'm afraid you'll find your faith in QE is misplaced.