Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 3/5/2010

WLI = 130.6
Annual ROC = 13.1%

No change to last week's WLI or the annual ROC.

Weekly Leading Index Rises
Reuters
March 12, 2010

(Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week while its yearly growth index continued to fall to a 31-week low, upholding expectations the economy will likely decelerate starting mid-year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index was 130.6 for the week ended March 5, up from 129.8 the previous week.

While the index has generally tended downward in 2010, its annualized growth rate component has fallen for 12 straight weeks. It now stands at 13.1 percent, down from 13.7 percent the prior week, marking its lowest reading since July 2009.

"While coincident indicators like retail sales growth have been rising in the wake of last year's strength in WLI growth, they are likely to start easing back by mid-year," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

The group's measure of yearly growth hit a record high of 28.6 percent in October 2009, and has continued to ease in what Achuthan says will result in slower expansion beginning during the summer months.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/26/2010

WLI = 129.8
Annual ROC = 13.7%

No change to last week's WLI or the annual ROC.

U.S. Expansion to Ease Come Summer
Reuters
March 05, 2010

(Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while its yearly growth gauge hit a 30-week low, reaffirming projections that expansion will begin to ease in the summer months, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 129.8 for the week ended Feb. 26 from 128.4 the prior week.

The annualized growth rate continued to fall, however, hitting a 30-week low of 13.7 percent from 14.9 percent in the previous week.

It was yearly growth's lowest reading since July 31, 2009 when it read 11.3 percent.

"The decline ... underscores our view that U.S. economic growth will start easing by mid-year," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reaffirming the group's recent forecasts of more moderate economic expansion come summer.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/19/2010

WLI = 128.4
Annual ROC = 14.9%

No change to last week's WLI, although the annual ROC was revised to 17.0%.

U.S. Economic Growth to Ease by Mid-Year
Reuters
February 26, 2010

(Reuters) - A forward-looking measure of U.S. economic growth was unchanged in the latest week, while its yearly growth gauge continued to slide, bolstering expectations that economic growth will ease by mid-year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 128.4 for the week ended Feb. 19, unchanged from the previous week.

It was the lowest reading since November 13, 2009, when it stood at 127.5.

The index's annualized growth rate declined for the 11th straight week to 14.9 percent from 17.0 percent the previous week, revised from an original 17.1 percent. It was the yearly growth gauge's lowest level since Aug. 7, 2009 when it read 14.6 percent.

"The decline in WLI growth to a 28-week low reinforces our earlier expectation that economic growth would begin to ease by mid-year," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/12/2010

WLI = 128.4
Annual ROC = 17.1%

No change to last week's WLI, although the annual ROC was revised to 19.6%.

U.S. Econ Expansion to Ease Off by Mid-Year
Reuters
February 19, 2010

(Reuters) - A forward-looking measure of U.S. economic growth slipped further in the latest week, while its yearly growth gauge continued to slide from October's record highs, suggesting expansion will likely ease by mid-year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 128.4 for the week ended Feb. 12 from 130.0 the prior
week.

It was the lowest reading since November 13, 2009, when it stood at 127.5.

The index's annualized growth rate declined for the tenth straight week to 17.1 percent, from 19.6 percent in the prior report, which was revised down from an original 19.7 percent.

It was the lowest rate since Aug. 7, 2009 when it read 14.6 percent.

Reaffirming last week's forecast, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan emphasized that the pace of economic expansion "will begin to ease off by mid-2010," as the yearly growth figure continued to fall from an October record high.

Achuthan, who deems the current recovery as strongest since the early 1980s, said the index show that "with the 6 percent GDP growth and the jobless rate having peaked back in October... a double dip is still out of the question."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/5/2010

WLI = 130.0
Annual ROC = 19.7%

No change to last week's WLI or the annual ROC.

U.S. Growth to Throttle Back by Mid-YearReuters
February 12, 2010

(Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth slipped further in the latest week as its yearly growth rate continued to dip from record highs, suggesting an expected pull-back in growth mid-year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index for the week ended Feb 5 fell slightly to 130.0 from 130.9 the prior week.

It was the lowest reading since Nov. 27, when it read 129.8.

The index's annualized growth rate declined for the ninth straight week to 19.7 percent, from 21.5 percent the previous week.

The yearly growth rate has fallen from its October record high to its lowest reading since a year and a half ago, though such moves are expected in a recovery, according to the group.

"While the U.S. economic expansion is well set to strengthen in the near term, the current easing in WLI growth to a 25-week low suggests that growth will begin to throttle back by mid-year," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/29/2010

WLI = 130.9
Annual ROC = 21.5%

No change to last week's or the annual ROC.

WLI Growth Down, Double Dip UnlikelyReuters
February 05, 2010

(Reuters) - A future U.S. economic growth gauge slipped in the latest week, and its yearly growth rate remained at levels reached in August 2009, maintaining a slim chances of a double-dip recession with slower growth in the near-term, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell slightly to 130.9 for the week ended Jan. 29 from 131.4 the prior week.

The index's annualized growth rate declined for the eighth straight week to 21.5 percent, from 22.7 percent the previous week.

The yearly growth measure has drifted from its October all-time high to its lowest reading since a year and a half ago, but ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said trends pointing to a double-dip recession are "nowhere in sight."

"The continued easing in WLI growth indicates that U.S. economic growth will start decelerating in the coming months," Achuthan said.

ECRI's annualized growth rate figure sometimes move inversely to the WLI level, as the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/22/2010

WLI = 131.4
Annual ROC = 22.7%

No change to last week's WLI, although the annual ROC was revised to 23.5%.

U.S. Business Cycle Recovery to Keep Going
Reuters
January 29, 2010

(Reuters) - A future U.S. economic growth gauge fell slightly in the latest week and its yearly growth rate slid to the lowest level since August 2009, though the data still points to continued strides in the recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index read 131.4 for the week ended Jan. 22, coming off the prior week's 83-week high of 132.2.

The index's annualized growth rate declined for the seventh straight week to 22.7 percent, from a revised 23.5 percent the previous week.

Though yearly growth has drifted from its October all-time high to its lowest reading since Aug. 28, 2009, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan maintains the group's projections that there is no double-dip recovery in sight.

"With the WLI staying near the previous week's 83-week high, the U.S. business cycle recovery is set to keep going in the months ahead," Achuthan said.

He also pointed to government data released earlier on Friday showing that the U.S. economy grew at a
faster-than-expected pace for the fourth quarter.

"With GDP growth rebounding 12 percentage points in just three quarters, the V-shaped recovery foreseen last summer by the WLI is coming into focus."

ECRI's annualized growth rate figure sometimes move inversely to the WLI level, as the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.

[rffrydr]

83 week high: Citi world economy surprise index not so hot:


_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/15/2010

WLI = 132.2
Annual ROC = 23.4%

No change to last week's WLI, although the annual ROC was revised to 23.7%.

WLI Growth At 19-Week Low

Reuters
January 22, 2010
(Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth continued to rise in the latest week while its yearly growth rate slipped further, though the data still points to continued strides in economic recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched higher to an 83-week high of 132.2 for the week ended Jan. 15, from 132.1 the prior week.

The index's annualized growth rate slipped again to a 19-week low of 23.4 percent from 23.7 percent the previous week, which was revised up from an original 23.5 percent.

It marked the lowest yearly growth reading since the gauge reached a record high in October.

Still, with WLI levels continuing to rise, the recovery "will continue to gain ground in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, who has recently forecast that the index's steady growth points to improvement in the jobs market in the near term.

The yearly growth rate figure sometimes moves inversely to the index level because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average, according to the group.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/8/2010

WLI = 132.1
Annual ROC = 23.5%

Last week's WLI was revised to 131.6, while the annual ROC was revised to 23.8%.

WLI Continues Climbing
Reuters
January 15, 2010

(Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth continued its climb in the latest week, though its yearly growth rate dropped again, a research group said on Friday.

The steady upticks in the leading index suggest, however, an enduring smooth recovery, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said.

The New York-based independent forecasting group said its Weekly Leading Index climbed to an 82-week high of 132.1 for the week ended Jan. 8, from an upwardly revised 131.6 the previous week, which was originally reported as 131.5.

The index's annualized growth rate edged down to a 17-week low of 23.5 percent from 23.8 percent the previous week, which was also revised higher from 23.6 percent.

It was the lowest yearly growth reading since the gauge reached record highs in October.

"The ongoing recovery in U.S. economic activity is poised to continue in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI, who recently told Reuters that the index's steady growth points to improvement in economic activity and the jobs market in the near future.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/1/2010

WLI = 131.5
Annual ROC = 23.6%

WLI Climbs to 18-month HighReuters
January 08, 2010

(Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week as its yearly growth rate declined, indicating signs of continued strengthening in the economy, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index climbed to a 78-week high of 131.5 for the week ended Jan. 1, from an downwardly revised 130.7 the prior week, which was originally reported as 131.2.

The index's annualized growth rate slipped to a five-week low of 23.6 percent from 24.0 percent the previous week, which was also revised down from 24.2 percent.

It was the lowest yearly growth figure the index has seen since reaching a record high of 28.1 in early October.

"With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy is firmly set to strengthen in the coming months," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

Last week Achuthan told Reuters that steady growth in the leading index signals continuing improvement in economic activity and the jobs market for the near-term.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 12/25/2009

WLI = 130.7
Annual ROC = 24.0%

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 12/18/2009

WLI = 130.4
Annual ROC = 24.4%

No revisions to last week's readings.

WLI Growth Edges Down
Reuters
December 24, 2009

(Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth edged slightly lower in the latest week, along with its yearly growth rate, but remained high enough to signal economic improvement ahead, a research group said on Thursday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched down to 130.4 in the week ended Dec. 18 from 130.7 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate edged down to 24.4 percent from 24.7 percent a week ago.

"With WLI growth remaining robust, the economy will keep improving in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 12/11/2009

WLI = 130.7
Annual ROC = 24.7%

Last week's WLI was revised to 130.2, while the annual ROC was revised to 24.0%.

WLI Rises to 17-month High
Reuters
December 18, 2009

(Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth continued to rise, reaching levels hit in the summer of 2008, while its yearly growth rate climbed toward recent record levels, a research group said on Friday, saying this reaffirmed its forecasts of smooth recovery into 2010.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.7 in the week ended Dec. 11 from an upwardly revised 130.2 the previous week. ECRI originally reported the previous week's number as 130.1.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to a four-week high of 24.7 percent from 24.0 percent the prior week, which was revised higher from 23.8 percent.

Yearly growth has risen for three straight weeks, rebounding toward its record high of 28.1 percent reached in October.

"With the WLI rising to a 17-month high as its growth rate reaccelerates, a resilient economic recovery is poised to persist well into the New Year," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 12/4/2009

WLI = 130.1
Annual ROC = 23.8%

No revisions to last week's readings.

WLI Growth Rises
Reuters
December 11, 2009

(Reuters) - A weekly index of future U.S. economic growth ticked up to levels reached early last year in the latest week, and a rebound in its yearly growth rate reaffirms forecasts of a smooth recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.1 in the week ended Dec. 4, from 129.5 the previous week.

The index's yearly growth rate rose to 23.8 percent from 23.4 percent the previous week, after spending seven straight weeks falling from record highs it hit in early October.

"The economic outlook remains positive" despite the recent contraction in the group's measure of annualized economic growth, said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

"We really need to see a pronounced, pervasive and persistent move in the opposite direction to say things are changing direction from our earlier outlook."

This week's index rose largely due to stronger housing activity, Achuthan said.

The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.