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rffrydr
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 Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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In irony of compound ironies we may be looking at the prospect of contango reversal signaling weakness. Think about it and a flotilla of crude is really an unbridled EEM bet.
There's plenty of room in this trade. There is no doubt a big china buy coming--that may be the time to put back the backwardization trade. As always, the risk Peak Oil.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2010 10:54 am Post subject: |
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India’s state refiners lost $6.3 bln selling fuel below cost from April to December – Oil Minister Deora said.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2009 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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Japanese Crude Oil Imports fell 19.1% y/y in June to an 18-year low. Refinery utilization was just over 70% compared to 63.2% in May, which was the lowest in 13 years.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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India took in 20billion boomtime FDI last fiscal year. Their oil imports went from 69billion to 120.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: |
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Those categories in the COT are now fully scrambled. See "Simons" under "Peak Oil." Don't use.
| Quote: | | Using resources efficiently is going to become much more important for sustainable growth, something China has paid little attention to in its impressive economic drive. It's noticeable that the Nikkei has also been outperforming recently, with one explanation being that analysts are upbeat on the potential for Japan to see a lot more sales of its energy-efficient machinery across Asia. |
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/commodity-inflation-piles-pain-asia/story.aspx?guid=%7B72E8F25A%2D1221%2D4163%2D898E%2D736C621A3A61%7D
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Suomodo
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Joined: 21 Mar 2008
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Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: |
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Latest C.O.T from Friday is still rather neutral for Oil ...
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/cot/CRUDE_OIL.htm
Commercials added to their slightly net long positions, small speculators added to their net short, large speculators unchanged slighly net long.....
Not consistent with "speculators bubble theory" and these indicators are not bearish for Oil...difficult to admit they are bullish 
Paulson might get it right and supply/demand has to solve the issue ... spiking in Oil still possible should the small speculators unwind their positions ... |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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Is this a positive or negative for "the world's factory"? From Mauldin's latest:
| Quote: | The US trade deficit is roughly where it has been for four years, running in the neighborhood of 6% of GDP. Only a few years ago, less than 30% of that was for oil. Now, that has changed. Roughly 60% of our trade deficit is spent on oil, much of it sadly going to countries that are not necessarily our friends.
The US consumer has cut his spending on non-oil items by almost 40% in terms of GDP over the past few years, and the trend is clearly down every quarter. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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China no doubt watching Malaysia, the populace. Shortages from ever increasing smuggling and inefficent transfers may force their hand in the end regardless of budget.
Super-spikes in Oil, unlike all other commoidities, is deflationary. It WILL be a leading indicator of business activity...down. It's that 70's Show--in Asia. Crude is everything but it's important to remember it is also everything in Transportation. China may run 70% on coal but it's oil that gets the stuff it needs to where it has to go. And it's oil that the consumer makes his peace with on a daily level.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: |
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And so it goes: GaveKal questioning their long-term committment,
| Quote: | One of the reasons that led us to move to Hong Kong in 2002 was our
conviction that the following decade would see, thanks to rising exchange
rates, rising employment and falling real interest rates, a sharp increase
in the purchasing power of Asian consumers. And to a large degree, this has
occurred. However if anything is testing that belief today, it is the
soaring cost of basic staples. Indeed, when we see that the Philippines’
rice import bill will likely eclipse its defense budget this year, or that
China is suffering gasoline shortages because refiners are bucking against
crippling price controls, it is hard not to get edgy and wonder about the
toll that the various subsidies dished out by the governments will take on
fiscal positions around the region. |
While the Korean army misses its bath:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed98e766-fa0c-11dc-9b7c-000077b07658.html
Depite (or because of it) the two-year backlog on everything from GE's turbines to coal locomotives don't look East for salvation.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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Asia sells off with once powerful airlines leading:
In Shanghai, airline stocks paced losses on fears about rising fuel costs on the back of record high crude oil prices. Shares of China Southern Airlines sank 8.6%, while China Eastern Airlines shed 5.1%.
Yen at "parity" on futures markets and taking the brunt of it.
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rffrydr
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