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HenryTo
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 Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:58 pm Post subject: Retail Industry Trends |
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Retailiers already bracing for the worst. The $64 billion question is, as always, how bad will this get and how much of this has already been factored into retail stocks?
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Retail Holiday Season May Be Modest
Tuesday October 30, 5:15 pm ET
By Betsy Vereckey, AP Business Writer
Sluggish US Economy May Weigh on Holiday Sales for National Retailers
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. retailers are bracing for a difficult holiday season, some industry watchers say, as higher gas prices and a sluggish housing market are expected to continue crimping consumer spending.
At a conference on Tuesday hosted by the Retail Marketing Society, a membership-based organization focused on the retail industry, some industry executives said holiday sales may be sluggish.
"This holiday season will be somewhat Grinch-like," said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research.
Steidtmann said retailers are preparing for the worst, especially given tightening credit and problems in the housing market. Steidtmann said it will be at least 18 months to two years before the housing market bottoms.
Merrill Lynch analyst Jaime Sheinheit said higher energy costs will weigh on consumer spending, noting that retailers have had trouble getting customers in the door. However, it's hard to tell whether the sluggish traffic is related to softening consumer spending or warm weather, Sheinheit said.
"Cold weather may spark shopping," she said.
In the luxury sector, Sheinheit said handbag maker Coach Inc. has warned of sluggish traffic in its U.S. stores. The company recently issued a fiscal second-quarter same-store sales outlook it called "conservative." Same-store sales are sales at stores open at least a year, and the industry metric is considered a key barometer of a retailer's health.
David Wolfe, creative director at Doneger Group, a buying office, said Coach has reached its saturation point with aspirational customers, who may not have the money to spend on these handbags but still want quality at a price.
Meanwhile, wealthy customers may help other luxury retailers this season, like Tiffany & Co., as spending patterns among the affluent tend to stay the same, regardless of changes in the economy.
Sectors that might fare better include teen retailers, Sheinheit said, noting that the income of their main customer, teenagers, usually stays the same. Companies in this sector include American Eagle Outfitters Inc. and Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
One company that may emerge stronger, Sheinheit said, is AnnTaylor Stores Corp., which has leaner inventory and a new product assortment at its lower-priced Loft division. In August, the company said it increased markdowns to reduce inventory heading into fall seasons at both its Ann Taylor and Loft stores.
"There is a lot of opportunity for Loft to improve margins this holiday season," Sheinheit said. "As always, what it comes down to is having the right product."
Last edited by HenryTo on Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:40 am; edited 2 times in total |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 5:37 pm Post subject: |
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Between June of 2009 and April of 2010, the S&P 500 had posted a gain on each day of the retail sales release.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 6:09 am Post subject: |
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Bloomberg reporting highest waste freight volumes since 1994.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 7:19 am Post subject: |
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Seasonal summer weather encouraged consumers to go shopping in the June 5 week, according to ICSC-Goldman, with chain-store sales rising 0.8% in the week for a year-on-year rate of 3.0%, the best rate of the last four weeks, Bloomberg reported. The report sees full-month June sales rising 3-4% year on year, boosted by an easy comparison with last year and the calendar shift for retailers that cut May off on May 29, thereby moving Memorial weekend sales into June.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat May 15, 2010 8:20 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar on Nordstrom's 1Q results:
| Quote: | | Nordstrom JWN posted strong first-quarter results, lending credence to our view that premium retailers will experience a bounce in sales and earnings this year, as affluent consumers ratchet up their discretionary spending given more stable asset values. Although we've been projecting a bounce in the department store chain's sales this year as demand for premium goods improves, we now think the magnitude of sales growth for Nordstrom is going to be higher than our initial high-single-digit projection. Year-to-date total retail sales are up in the high-teens, and while we don't think this rate of growth is sustainable going forward given more difficult comparisons in the back half of the year, we do think low-double-digit growth is likely. With lean inventories and recent cost-cutting initiatives, double-digit sales growth this year should lead to strong near-term earnings growth, which we plan to factor into our discounted cash-flow analysis. Our fair value estimate remains under review as we revisit our assumptions. Total revenue in the quarter was $2.08 billion, up 16.5% over the prior-year period, driven by a 13.7% increase in same-store sales (including a 38% increase in the direct-to-consumer business), incremental sales from new stores, and an 11.6% rise in credit card revenue. Better merchandise margins (due to fewer markdowns), and expense containment efforts (despite increased operating costs related to new stores and performance-related compensation), resulted in a 350 basis point improvement in the operating margin, to 10.5%. Strong top-line growth is likely to be a key driver of margin expansion this year, as the company benefits from lean inventory levels and begins to leverage fixed costs. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon May 03, 2010 10:35 am Post subject: |
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RTH keeps giving:
Jim Cramer
Consumer spending
5/3/2010 10:25 AM EDT
| Quote: | | The consumer spending reports that we are getting confirm the RTH. If you want to see the leverage, listen to the JNY report. It is all about lean inventories throughout the retail supply chain.. . |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Apr 26, 2010 10:06 pm Post subject: |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2010 8:22 am Post subject: |
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Retailing Today on March sales and the impact of Easter:
| Quote: | Retailers continued to show strength over last year for the month of March, with several retailers reporting double-digit same-store sales growth. Target posted a better-than-expected 10.3% comps increase, TJX, which reported a 12% increase, crushed analysts' estimate for a 6.5% gain and Ross Stores posted a 14% increase that also well exceeded expectations. Kohl's did especially well in March, with a 22.5% comps increase that far exceeded the 12% gain consensus forecast.
While those numbers are good, the impact of Easter cannot be underestimated. Costco and BJ's, for example, both noted in their March sales reports that the fact Easter fell in the March reporting period impacted their comparable sales by as much as 2%. For the month of March, Costco said its U.S. comps, excluding fuel, were up 2%. At BJ's, same-store sales, excluding fuel, were up 7.3%.
April's numbers will likely be at least somewhat lower than those posted in March, however the retail industry has been on an upswing so far in 2010 and should continue to grow as the economy improves. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 6:43 am Post subject: |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:17 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar's latest notes on Aeropostale (ARO) and why its robust same-store sales growth won't last in 2010:
| Quote: | | After reviewing Aeropostale's ARO fourth-quarter results, we are maintaining our fair value estimate. The firm posted an impressive 9% increase in quarterly comparable-store sales, outperforming competitors like American Eagle AEO and Abercrombie & Fitch ANF, which delivered 5% growth and a 13% decline in same-store sales, respectively. In our view, Aeropostale's ability to gain share amid the tough consumer spending environment was largely attributable to its value proposition and successful marketing campaigns. However, this trend will probably reverse in fiscal 2010 as teens trade back up to premium brands fol lowing improvements in the economy. In our view, the firm will have to fight hard to retain its newfound customers, especially given recent pricing reductions at American Eagle and Abercrombie. As a result, we project Aeropostale's same-store sales growth will decelerate to the low single digits in 2010, relative to the 10.0% delivered in 2009. The quarterly operating margin expanded significantly to 19.9% from 16.4%, mainly because of better merchandise margins and leverage gained from spreading store operating expenses over a larger revenue base. This was partially offset by higher incentive compensation, advertising expense and travel costs during the quarter. While we anticipate that Aeropostale will continue to benefit from cost savings through supply-chain efficiencies and updated product-allocation systems in the near term, higher marketing expense and increased competition in teen retail will probably weigh on margins. Therefore, we estimate that the operating margin in 2010 will be slightly below the 17.2% posted in the prior year. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:37 am Post subject: |
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Cheaper on Amazon? Amazing. Instant gratification will greatly water-down this tech trick. Speaking of which, how do you like that 20% combined tax on your cell bill every month. New York the worst with its 16%; Cali in there at 13%....Nevada a cool 1% 
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